Ten years following the UK entered into a rushed public vote that polarised the country and triggered turmoil, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two leading journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially tense and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."
New Title Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts all parties, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been clarified because then you land with an extremely polarised community where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won lack clarity precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say such a time is approaching, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, leaving it unclear if and when there will be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has masked the shortage of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the actual thinking which may surpass that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has occurred in universities but hardly any politicians or activists seek to involve themselves with the basics. As an example, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, none of the commentators supports unity or the existing arrangement. Each composes two essays that aim for neutrality in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling financial and societal figures, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Discussions range over flags and symbols, taxes, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The aim is to enlighten and stimulate dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there has not yet occurred a debate," said O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an acceptance of the concept that there could be valid points on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they prefer unification but oppose increased taxation or implementing a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin should work out what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride thinks a referendum in his era is probable and that it could happen suddenly. "You could have just a mad or a poor or a negligent government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have credible, valid perspectives, he stated. "One side will prevail here and the other side will eventually be defeated but all factions has has something to acquire from the other's viewpoints."
Appeal for Wider Debate
Westminster needed to participate in the discussion, urged the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."
