Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the tension triggered by the announcement of a new comprehensive peace framework for achieving ceasefire appeared – briefly – to have been stabilised. A senior US official spoke of "notable headway" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its response: an extensive attack of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Negotiation and Warfare
The chain of opposing developments captured the bleak nature of the outgoing year. By day, political struggles are waged: hopeful statements are delivered from multiple capitals. Significant resources is devoted on managing specific proposals. By night, the Kremlin forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, military action persists as the key method for achieving "resolution".
Nocturnal Warfare
As military strikes unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's vulnerability was exposed. Ukraine is able to track projectile deployments from Russian territory, a ability enabled by up-to-date information. From witness perspectives, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been scrambled to counter approaching guided weapons roared overhead – modern combat jets provided to Ukraine by NATO members.
Moments later, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons engaged: multiple launches deployed against a hostile projectile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, probably delivered by partner states. Every deployment creates sudden vibrations, causing tremors. The moment of terror quickly becomes resigned acknowledgment: possibly the incoming missile won't hit its mark this time, preventing destruction from devastation and additional electricity failures.
Ongoing Risks
Not long after, a large-caliber weapon opened up on a drone in the vicinity, part of a defensive team – probably allied-provided weaponry. Unfortunately, the bullets missed the opposing UAV – it pressed on overhead toward its destination.
Periodically, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv faced the morning news: multiple fatalities, destruction and utility failures in numerous residences as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As always, everyone still continued their routines – enduring hostilities. But those 24 hours illustrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on international aid – a need that European nations are demonstrably unable to fill in the near term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The detailed framework from American leadership sparked intense emotion, debate and serious worry – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after previous diplomatic encounters and bilateral conferences.
Every new approach from Washington adheres to the identical sequence: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, effectively counters. They manage the tension but never actually achieve victory. This cycle will, certainly, continue.
Tactical Assessments
It is tempting to accuse specific actors of consistently pushing Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. US administration operates on a assumption understood by experienced diplomats: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have failed to defend militarily. The American government presumes that it is unrealistic to pressure the Kremlin to surrender the areas that it presently holds in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The problem is that while acknowledging this situation, Washington does nothing to discourage Russia, through statements or actions, from believing that the current condition will not evolve additionally in its benefit in the coming year.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Moscow is confident that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its allies are approaching exhaustion. Their motivation to agree to terms that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is close to zero. There may be numerous efforts to stop fighting, but they will carry on as long as Russia's government remains supremely confident in the outcome.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still persist, progressively conceding people and territory but avoiding a complete military breakdown until situations evolve in its favour.
Present Conditions
Objectively, there are no genuine requirements for a truce. Now, individual motivations are becoming relevant: personal goals to broker a ceasefire and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Ukrainian leadership's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to unite the population around the country's interests against any plan Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their attention does not move to homefront challenges. And although their task will now be considerably more difficult after recent developments, it remains very improbable that this will change their overall approach.
These conflicting dynamics are influencing discussions.
Assessment and Future
It took a mere seven days to terminate the 28 points of the most recent proposal. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by American leadership, opposition by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with calming attempts of negotiators, and finally, latest revelations, all did their job.
While new proposals based on established approaches are approaching, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off diplomatic offensives from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and reflect certain reluctance to change the course of events, if they remain united and strengthen their defence capabilities at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the coming months, largely rely on sustained allied backing.
