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Ordinarily, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year honor follows a straightforward pattern. It frequently functions as a kind of mea culpa. We regret we got wrong your squad in our preseason projections.

In theory, it's a direct line: the skipper who oversaw the largest resurgence is handed the prize. In practice, it creates an annual argument about expectations and whether we're actually rewarding excellent coaching or simply the greatest upset.

But this year's competition is distinctly unique. The pool of nominees is remarkably talented. It has been the campaign of resurgences. The NFL has been unpredictable, with reigning conference champions fading and longtime also-rans improving collectively. During an normal year, a coach guiding the his team to the summit of the conference would make him the overwhelming front-runner. Yet in such a turbulent and entertaining season, he's competing with multiple other elite candidates.

Below is how the ideal ballot ought to shake out.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors adore quarterbacks. History shows this. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. When you solve a franchise QB, you're halfway home.

Ben Johnson not only corrected his young quarterback; he's unleashed him. Given a proper environment, Williams has been afforded the chance to display his rare talent. From Week 9, the Bears sit at fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a lucky run – it's prolonged dominance. With his guidance, Williams has become increasingly confident, less reckless, and has eagerly surrendered to the system instead of freelancing. It is an offense constructed solely in Johnson's vision: a bully-ball ground attack, a heavy dose of play-action passes and a creative passing attack that creates wide-open targets all over the field. The QB has taken advantage. And when easy reads haven't been there, he's been able to create magic from broken plays.

Johnson came to Chicago with a defined offensive vision. Virtually each gamble – overhauling the trenches, highlighting the tight ends, turning the QB into a timing-based passer – has paid off. That's rare for a rookie skipper. And it's even more uncommon yet for a leader who entered the building with the kind of expectations Johnson did. For two straight cycles, he was the most sought-after name on the coaching market. However when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are no sure things. Somehow, Johnson has met expectations – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not only to be a scheme wizard but the type of leader that can inject fresh energy into an organization.

During a ordinary season, Johnson would be the runaway favorite. But the current is not a typical season!

The area where Johnson's case comes slightly unstuck is on defense. The Bears presently rank in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are living on takeaways, and takeaways are famously inconsistent. Defensive minds can stress creating turnovers, but no one can guarantee it. He is on the ballot because the offensive production is real. He's ranked lower because variance is doing too much of the defensive heavy lifting. If not for a couple bounces of the ball, the team would be several wins worse off. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the foundation is established for sustained success. However he falls short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable position to Johnson. He's a fellow rookie leader who has orchestrated a swift resurgence. During the stretch run of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the finest all-around football of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the remaking of a defense that now sits at fifth in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more impressively, he has mastered the leadership aspects, which wasn't a certainty following his initial public introduction and some of his offseason moves.

Coen walked into the Jaguars with an uncommonly inexperienced staff. Unlike Johnson, who packed themselves with the ideal coaching cocktail of new ideas and veteran savvy, Coen trusted newbies. From the leader himself to coordinators to position coaches, the Jags are stocked with first-timers. That type of setup is exciting on paper, but often collapses in reality – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everybody is learning a new job in real-time. Yet Coen has pulled the entire group and everything into sync.

After an early strong start, there was a chance that the campaign would go off the track. A mid-year collapse caused the Jags stumbling once more. That's usually when leaders panic and change too much. Coen didn't. Instead, he streamlined the approach. Jacksonville stopped chasing explosive answers and started seeking reliable ones. Coen recentered the attack around key players and the running game, and encouraged his QB to use his mobility more.

The outcomes are evident. The Jaguars have won seven games in a row and will be the conference's No 3 seed. Coen gets the slightest deduction in the rankings because he took over a skilled team, but he has proven he can maximize that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Every Strong of the Year case has a defining moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback decision.

Moving on from a incumbent, signing a new quarterback and partnering him with an innovative offensive coordinator might have derailed the season in the early weeks. Instead, it defined it. Through the mid point of the year, the new QB was an MVP contender. He has regressed after that time, dropping to 23rd in efficiency per dropback over the second half of the schedule, putting him only a single spot ahead of other QBs.

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