War-torn Myanmar Goes to the Polls in Broadly Condemned Political Theater.

Myanmar is going to the polls in a vote broadly rejected as a farce, with key opposition groups banned, numerous figures imprisoned and a significant portion of the country unable to participate because of an continuing internal conflict.

A Staggered Vote Amid Conflict

The ruling junta is holding a staggered election nearly five years after it took control in a takeover, which ignited widespread opposition and escalated into a devastating conflict.

Observers say the junta, with China's support, is attempting to validate and entrench its power as it looks for a way out of the devastating stalemate.

"The environment does not allow for the exercise of the rights of freedom of expression, association or peaceful assembly," UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Volker Türk said.

Over two hundred people have been prosecuted for interfering with or criticising the election under a recently enacted legislation which imposes severe punishments, including the possibility of execution.

Film director Mike Tee, performer Kyaw Win Htut and comedian Ohn Daing were among the prominent figures found guilty under the law, which was passed in July. They were each handed a seven-year jail term after speaking out against a film endorsing the elections.

Immense Challenges and Coercion

Civilians are "facing pressure from all sides," Mr Türk noted in a comment, pointing out that resistance forces have issued their own threats asking people to shun the polls.

The army has been engaged on multiple battlefields, against both pro-democracy fighters who oppose the coup, as well as ethnic armies which have their own forces. It ceded territory of large parts of the country in a series of major setbacks, but clawed back territory this year following relentless airstrikes enabled by support from Beijing and Moscow.

All of this and the fact that large parts of the country are still under rebel administration presents a massive operational hurdle for conducting an election.

A Limited Vote

The ballot is set to take place in three phases over the coming weeks in two hundred and seventy-four of the country's 330 townships, with the remainder deemed not secure enough. Outcomes are expected by late January.

There is not expected to be any voting in as much as one half of the country. Even in the townships that are voting, some districts will go to the polls, making it difficult to forecast a likely turnout.

A handful of parties, including the military-backed Union Solidarity and Development Party, are fielding candidates nationwide, while dozens more parties and non-aligned contenders will contest only at the state or regional levels.

Some 40 parties, including Aung San Suu Kyi's National League of Democracy, which achieved decisive wins in 2015 and 2020, have been dissolved. Suu Kyi and a number of the party's senior figures have been imprisoned under charges widely condemned as politically motivated, while others are in hiding abroad.

Criticism and Rejection

"Through dividing the vote into phases, the junta can adjust tactics if the outcomes in the first phase do not go their way," commented Htin Kyaw Aye, a representative of the election-monitoring group Spring Sprouts.

Western governments, including the UK and the European Parliament, have dismissed the vote as a sham, while regional bloc Asean has called for political dialogue to precede any election.

The Myanmar regime has rejected criticism of the polls, insisting that it aims to "return [the country] to a multi-party democratic system".

"This vote is being held for Myanmar. It is being held for the citizens of Myanmar. It is not being held for the outside world," a military representative stated at a briefing last week.

Junta chief Min Aung Hlaing cautioned earlier this week that those who refuse to vote are rejecting "the path to democracy".